Choosing a rifle, what to do?

Here is the deal.. I know its a loaded question, but I want to make the best choice I can. I want to buy a deer hunting rifle for my daughter. I am trying to make the best choice I possibly can within a budget of $450. The daughter that I want to buy it for is 11 years old and average weight for that age and average to slightly above average height. What steps do you typically follow when choosing a rifle? Obviously there choosing a caliber is important, and perhaps the budget as mentioned. Do you stick with tried & true models? My sporterized model 98 Mauser has suited me well over the years in the 7-08 cartridge & there are parts all over for them. I was looking at a Marlin XT at a gun show in the 7mm-08 for $400 with a synthetic stock & youth model. I can't find too much info about the XT, however. Would something like that concern you as far as purchasing a gun model that may have been discontinued or has little parts available? If few guns were made of a particular model, do you see that as potentially, some day you or your son/daughter may have a more valuable gun? Do you choose a caliber that has readily available ammo?

1) So I am leaning toward the 7mm-08 because she has shot mine & is ok with the recoil but realize there are other rounds out there too. Ammo is available, but not quite as much as say.. 243. Not a big fan of 243 myself, have seen and heard of more than a share of deer lost. I know some swear by it and perhaps I could be convinced otherwise.
2) Synthetic stock would be lighter, but possibly more recoil? I like the looks of a wood stock better & don't know if they are more valuable in the long term?
3) I like the idea of something more than a single shot & wouldn't be opposed to something other than a bolt action, but that would be my preference & she is used to shooting a bolt action as well.
4) I don't know how often she will go hunting & don't imagine that if she does, that she will shoot further than 150 yds & probably more than likely under 100 yds.

Hmm... The more I think about it, I am thinking what I might need is a magic crystal ball!

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Choosing a rifle, what to do?